Trump Assassination Attempt Spurs Range of Conspiracy Theories
The Trump assassination attempt has led to widespread conspiracy theories on alt-tech platforms.
TLDR
On July 13, 2024, there was an attempt on Donald Trump’s life at a campaign event in Pennsylvania.
Trump survived the attempt and in the days that followed, conspiracy theories about the Trump assassination attempt emerged on alt-tech platforms like Truth Social, Gab, and Rumble.
Proposed theories suggest Secret Service incompetence, Republican and/or Democratic party involvement, Jewish plots, and false flag allegations.
Open Measures researchers noted that conspiracy theories came from Trump supporters as well as his opponents, and are expected to continue to evolve.
Background
At a campaign event in Pennsylvania on July 13, 2024, an identified gunman shot at presidential candidate Donald Trump, grazing his ear. Other attendees were injured as well, with one killed. Days later on July 15, 2024, Trump was officially declared the Republican nominee for the 2024 US presidential election at the Republican National Convention (RNC).
Since the shooting, many social media users began asking questions about the shooter's motivations. Others questioned if there lapses in the security planning process, and if so, who should be held accountable for them. As the world waited for more confirmed information, conspiracy theories began to take hold online.
Commentators have pointed to the prevalence of so-called “BlueAnon” conspiracy theories from the political left, implying that Trump’s assassination attempt was staged to strengthen his image.1 Open Measures researchers uncovered numerous conspiracy theories emerging from right-wing alt-tech platforms on the internet as well. The authors of these posts seem ideologically diverse, both supporting and opposing Trump.
Analysis
For this investigation, researchers focused on the alt-tech platforms Truth Social, Gab, and Rumble, where many opinions and conspiracy theories about the Trump assassination attempt were circulating.
Truth Social and Gab are microblogging sites similar to X (formerly Twitter), allowing users to author posts and interact with other users on the platform. Rumble is a video-sharing website similar to YouTube. All three platforms highlight their low levels of content moderation as a selling point.
A sample of the conspiracy theories Open Measures researchers observed are detailed below. Emphasis has been added in bold to certain quotes by Open Measures researchers to highlight significant elements.
Secret Service Concerns
The public is still waiting for more information about how the Trump assassination attempt could have occurred. Even so, online commenters have already started discussing the Secret Service’s alleged culpability in failing to protect Donald Trump. Some users have accused the Secret Service of incompetence; others have outright accused them of facilitating the assassination attempt themselves.
Across platforms, Open Measures researchers observed posts bemoaning the fact that Trump had women in his Secret Service detail at the campaign rally. Similarly, there were also posts celebrating the apparent lack of women in his security detail at the RNC days later.
From Rumble on July 16, 2024 [sic]:
…wtf was the deal with his SS detail? young - USELESS - girls, more concerned with their sunglasses rather than doing their jobs. Note the men all dived on top of Trump…
From Truth Social on July 15, 2024, the first day of the RNC [sic]:
I watched the RNC convention it was good to see president Trump ..I noticed he had men around him not women protecting him ..I bet when he’s president he will hire his own security guards..made of some of J.D fellow marines .. I would wouldn’t you ? MAGA
“DEI”, an abbreviation for diversity, equity, and inclusion initiatives, was often used derisively in posts about women in charge of Trump’s security.
From Truth Social on July 15, 2024 [sic]:
Director of Secret Service Cheatle is a DEI Hire, previously protecting Chitos at Pepsi Co., enabled an assassination attempt on Trump.
Various individuals shared that Trump’s Secret Service team was a “temporary” detail. Some posts alleged that the Secret Service had shifted resources away from candidate Trump in order to provide more security for Jill Biden, the President’s wife. It is unclear what “temporary” would mean in this context, and Open Measures researchers could not find any mainstream coverage of this allegation.
From Rumble on July 16, 2024 [sic]:
Breaking!!.,.,Trump's permanent SS team was replaced with a "temporary" team. You start adding it all up,.,.,an it starts getting ugly. VERY ugly! I don't even wanna go there.,.,.
From Rumble on July 16, 2024 [sic]:
…They took some of the security team from Trump and used them on Jill leaving Trump with temporary agents. But with saying all that—time will tell and may God expose the truth and bring Justice swiftly.
Other accounts suggested or even explicitly stated that the Secret Service was behind the shooting.
From Rumble on July 17, 2024 [sic]:
That’s because it was the secret service staged below the shooter in the same building that took the shot. This kids was the fall guy. Look at the angle of the shot and the poor individuals that were hit behind Trump…it doesn’t add up. The bigger question is why would the secret servicemen who took the shot purposely miss, or perhaps it was divine intervention and he didn’t intend to miss
Trump’s Complicity in Assassination Attempt
As noted, commentators called attention to “BlueAnon” theories accusing Trump of staging the assassination attempt himself. Interestingly, Open Measures researchers also found posts discussing Trump’s complicity on alt-tech platforms as well, which traditionally cater to a more right-wing audience. The coherence of these theories varied.
A popular theory is that Trump (or in some variants, other Republican powers-that-be) staged the assassination in order to rally support around Trump and strengthen his appeal.
From July 17, 2024, on Rumble [sic]:
Don't fall for this hollywood side show. this was all staged Trump knew this was going to happen. all the photos where taken at the perfect time.. This was the marriage cermoney of Hollywood and DC
From July 18, 2024, on Gab [sic]:
Okay Trump-lovers, hear me out, you’ll be relieved to see this brief vid that was taken down from youtube, showing (with zoomed out video, gunshot audio) that the assassination attempt was very staged… This could have been a quick way for the higher ups to unify everybody incl independents/RINOs w sympathy behind Trump, make the public less skeptical again, so they will accept the election outcome.
From July 15, 2024, on Gab [sic]:
I believe it was staged. But I also believe that there is a very good reason that it was… This “Trump Assassination Attempt” has garnered all the swing states to Trump’s side in the polls. It’s also spiking the poles in ALL 50 STATES! ALL 50!!!If all 50 States are red going into the RNC Monday when they announce Donald J. Trump as The Republican Nominee for President of the United States there is NO WAY The Democrats will be able cheat for a Joe Biden win without making it so obvious that even a blind man could see it.We've been awaiting "Trump Card”. I believe it was just masterfully played.
Open Measures researchers were interested in understanding more about the political leanings of Gab users accusing Trump of complicity in his own assassination attempt. Of six accounts expressing these sentiments:
Two accounts had expressed anti-Trump sentiments before the shooting
One account was pro-Trump but skeptical of the Republican party
One account believed the assassination was staged but still supported Trump
Two accounts regularly took interest in the news and did not appear to be either pro- or anti-Trump
Jewish Plot
Other accounts expressed concern that the Trump assassination attempt was a Jewish plot. These antisemitic comments were most prevalent on Gab and Rumble. Commenters seemed to allege that either the shooter or Trump himself was a Jewish asset.
From July 14, 2024, on Rumble [sic]:
The whole "assassination attempt" was fake... a suicidal dysgenic jew (whose parents are federal employees) the secret service never tried to stop - but now jews can re-align as "conservatives"...
From July 14, 2024, on Rumble [sic]:
If anyone has noticed I don't care about the attempted assassination or whatever they are fucking calling it now. Its a jewish psyop. I hate all politicians they are all owned by the jew anyways and so is zion Don. What I do care about is my fellow White people and the survival of our race. Blood and soil comes first before anything else. I'm way past this psyop jew false flag shit now. There is no political solution and it's been way past time to accelerate…
From July 17, 2024, on Gab [sic]:
I think the assassination was staged, that Trump was complicit, and that he may be selected as president. Some Jewish faction wants him gone but the ”right wing” may have been more calculating and probably extracted concessions from him - like benefits for Israel, protection for bankers and business, and a blind eye while they finish looting our country. Hope im wrong but im afraid I may be right
As of July 17, 2024, many users have shined a spotlight on Austin Private Wealth, alleging that the company shorted Trump Media & Technology Group stocks ahead of the assassination attempt. Many of these users implied that Austin Private Wealth is a “Jewish” company.
From July 18, 2024, on Gab [sic]:
It’s interesting that one of the firms which took an enormous “short” position against $DJT ONE DAY before the assassination attempt of 7/13 has now been identified as Austin Private Wealth LLC, which is majority-owned by George Soros and BlackRock.A quick dive on APW LLC shows the firm to be connected to Presidents George Bush Sr. and Jr., who attended events and were involved in the company's “charitable outreach”. Former Secretary of State and HW’s Chief of Staff James Baker has been the firms Senior Policy Director since 2006.APW LLC according to their website also directly supports the ACLU, ADL Austin, Shalom Austin, Camp Young Judaea, Austin Jewish Academy, and Hadassah…
From July 18, 2024, on Rumble [sic]:
Check out the Jewish investment company that shorted Donald j trump media company a huuuuge amount of shares one day before the assassination attempt….. ala 9/11 Jew style.
Miscellaneous
Other conspiracy theories accused top Democrats of involvement in the Trump assassination attempt. Some alleged that Joe Biden incited the violence, while others made cryptic statements about Hillary Clinton’s involvement.
From Rumble on July 17, 2024 [sic]:
So did a 20 year old shooter know how to pick this specific Trump Rally and he outsmarted the cops and USSS which Trump's defenses would be at weakest point, unless it was a set-up, staged and inside job...Hilary Clinton called the SHOTS!!??
Others accused top Republicans of playing a role in the attack, including recently-named Republican VP candidate JD Vance and former Republican hopeful Nikki Haley.
From Rumble on July 16, 2024 [sic]:
Nikki Haley was NOT invited [to the RNC]....she thought President Trump would be taken out and she would move in his spot. SHE KNEW
From Truth Social on July 15, 2024 [sic]:
A VP choice immediately after an assassination attempt tells me Vance is a Deep State plant…Sorry, at this moment, I do not trust JD Vance.
Conclusion
The Donald Trump assassination attempt has inspired both left and right-wing conspiracy theories. Many right-wing theories on alt-tech platforms point outwards—at the Secret Service, the Democrats, at Jewish people. Still, others have accused Trump of playing a role in his own assassination attempt.
Researchers at Open Measures will continue to study online activity for evolving narratives about the Trump assassination attempt. Reports have already emerged that militias are using the event to drive recruitment.2 Theories are sure to continue to evolve in the wake of the RNC, leading up to the Democratic National Convention (DNC) in August, and as more information is made public about the attack on July 13.
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Lorenz, T. (2024, July 14). ‘blueanon’ conspiracy theories flood social media after Trump Rally Shooting - The Washington Post. The Washington Post. https://www.washingtonpost.com/technology/2024/07/14/blueanon-conspiracy-theories-trump-rally-shooting/
Owen, T. (2024, July 15). Militias are recruiting off of the Trump shooting. Wired. https://www.wired.com/story/militia-recruitment-trump-shooting-assassination-attempt/